As you know today is election day and I am here to tell you who wins hours before the results come in. If you don't want to know who wins then I'd suggest you stop reading now (please keep reading). I will make one last statistical case for each candidate then give you the results. I know you've heard many breakdowns but none have the answer at the end. Before I do give you the results I will give the fans of each candidate one last reason why your candidate will win tonight.
Why Hillary Clinton Will Win...
Hillary is a little easier to break down than Donald Trump because we are more familiar with her fan base than that of Trump. The data is all right in front of us but the only question that matters to me is how will minorities show up and vote? Will they show up with anywhere near the passion of 2008 and 2012? If they do Hillary should win.
- Donald Trump doesn't have many of the traditional methods of data going for him. He is down in the polls. Pretty much no presidential polling upset has happened since 1948 when Truman beat Dewey despite being down 5% in the polls going into election day. Hillary Clinton finishes up 3.3% in the polls. Not a huge lead but by polling standards a big enough lead to make her feel comfortable.
- The electoral map does not favor Trump. Clinton has many more paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win while Trump is pretty much going to need to win every toss-up state and 1 democrat leaning state.
If you look at the primary results in states that had a higher percentage of minorities Hillary did better than the RealClearpolitics average. That bodes well for Clinton in states like Florida and Virginia.
I'd like to look at the RealClearpolitics average from the primaries. Hillary outperformed the average in what will be a couple of key swing states. First is Florida where Hillary outperformed the average poll by 3%. That's not much but if she is able to outperform the polls by 3% today Florida could be a huge win.
Clinton also outperformed her polling in Nevada by 3.1% which if she wins that state will leave very little room for Trump to find enough electoral votes to win. Another outside chance to spoil Trump's night could be Iowa where Trump had a 4.7% lead in the polls over Ted Cruz but lost by 3.3%. Hillary didn't do as well as expected either only winning by .2% while the polls had her as a 4% favorite. If Trump can struggle to perform in Iowa as he did during the primaries Clinton may have hope to steal the Hawkeye State.
One last swing state Hillary Clinton outperformed her polls in was Virginia. This was also Trump's worst state by poll predictions coming in 12% lower than expected even though he did still win. Virginia is considered a leaning blue state and she should win this. If Clinton somehow loses Virginia it would be a long night for her. This should be Hillary's state and if we see good minority turnout early in the night for Virginia it could be a great night nationwide for Clinton.
Why Donald Trump Will Win...
Donald Trump's base is as passionate as any candidate we've ever seen. The question is how big is this base? We see the incredible energy from diehard Trump supports at his rally's and everywhere online. But is that a select few million people or does it go further than all the experts realize? We know there is a hidden Donald Trump fan base that doesn't want to admit out loud that they are voting for Trump but how many of those are there?
- The Brexit effect: The polls leading up to voting on whether Great Britain should 'stay' or 'leave' the UK were pointing towards 'stay' by about 4%. But as you know the vote went for 'leave' by about 4%. Many believe this could happen for Trump as well. That many Trump supporters were simply not contacted by pollsters.
- Lets look at the Republican primary results compared to the RealClearpolitics average. The one that Trump fans can get most excited about to me is Michigan. Trump was pretty much in line with the polls in Michigan. But Hillary Clinton fell way short in the Democratic primary in Michigan. She was up 21% in the polls and lost by 1.5% to Bernie Sanders. This was definitely the surprise of the primary season. Michigan is not exactly considered in play by most. But if the polls can miss on Hillary this bad once then they could again.
- The polls actually didn't fair very well throughout the primaries for Clinton. She outperformed the polls in mostly conservative southern states where she will lose anyway. The toss up states she struggled against Bernie Sanders. Arizona was closer than expected by 13%, Wisconsin was considered a toss up and Bernie beat her by 12.5, Iowa was 4% less than expected, New Hampshire Hillary finished 10% less than what she polled at, and in Indiana which is not a swing state she finished 12% behind her polling numbers and lost in a state considered pretty much a lock for Clinton.
- Donald Trump on the other hand, outperformed his polls in swing states. With the exception of Iowa and North Carolina, Trump outperformed Nevada by 6%, New Hampshire by 2.3%, Florida by 1% and Arizona by 9%.
Who will win?
Most elections I have found pretty easy to predict the winner. This one I have not. The math in most conventional places makes you think Hillary Clinton will be our next president. But it is hard to ignore the passion and frustration of the Donald Trump supporters who are ready for change.
If math adds up and we see everything align as the polls suggest you will see a somewhat comfortable win for Hillary. You will see states like Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire tip her way and the book will be closed on Trump.
But there is something in the unseen and the unheard. We only know what we see and what we hear. But what we can't see and can't hear is what may be determining the winner of this election. The people in the small rural areas that aren't on TV or making headlines. Their passion and anger with the system are louder than the mainstream even realizes. They will not be sitting at home this election. They will be showing up with a vengeance ready to finally have their voices heard. I will not be going with math or so-called logic in my election guarantee. I am going with the unknown. Trump will win and we will see surprises.