In yet another of my personality quirks, I annually treat the NFL draft as a minor holiday and spend hours with my son Eli lining up our draft picks and projections for the Arizona Cardinals. This has evolved into our latest objective, which is to see which of us can get the most picks correct and top Mel Kiper Jr and Todd McShay in their projections, proving that our part time analysis is at least as good as their year round expertise. Lets face it, we work cheaper then they do, so lets see how our picks stack up this year:
Selection Team Mark Eli Kiper McShay
1st Rams Sam Bradford Bradford
2nd Lions Ndamukong Suh Suh
3rd Tampa Gerald McCoy McCoy
4th Redskins Trent Williams T. Williams
5th Chiefs Russell Okung Berry
6th Seattle C.J. Spiller Okung
7th Browns Eric Berry Morgan
8th Oakland Anthony Davis Clausen
9th Buffalo Bryan Baluga Davis
10th Jaguars Earl Thomas* Spiller
11th Bronco's Maurkice Pouncey McClain
12th Miami Dan Williams Kindle
13th San Fran Joe Hayden Baluga
14th Seattle Dez Bryant Thomas
15th N.Y. Giants Rolando McClain Weatherspoon
16th Titans Derrick Morgan Paul
17th San Fran Mike Iupati Hayden
18th Steelers Kyle Wilson Pouncey
19th Falcon's Jason Pierre Paul Graham
20th Texans Kareem Jackson Matthews
21th Bengals Jermain Greshom Bryant
22nd Patriots Brandon Graham Greshom
23rd Packers Rodger Saffold Iupati
24th Eagles Tim Tebow** Wilson
25th Ravens Jared Odrick Thomas
26th Cardinals Nick Weatherspoon D. Williams
27th Cowboys Charles Brown Saffold
28th Chargers Ryan Matthews Jackson
29th NY Jets Sergio Kindle Joseph
30th Vikings Devin McCourtney Tebow
31st Colts Dymerious Thomas Hughes
32nd Saints Jerry Hughes Odrick
The toughest calls are the Bills, who have an entirely new front office that has never drafted and the team is a mess, Jacksonville which clearly wants to trade down, Baltimore because they always pick the best talent regardless of need and Seattle because of two picks and a brand new staff in place drafting. I believe that teams will always reach for offensive tackles so expect all of the possible top talent to go quick and to even have a few filter into the end of the first round to restock Green Bay and Dallas. The run on offensive tackles is going to push Jimmy Clausen into a free fall if the Bills don't take him, which I pray they don't.
Seattle with their new front office is going to look to get good on one side of the ball and drafting where they are they need to get impact players. Grabbing CJ Spiller and Dez Bryant would give Pete Carroll his QB of the future and two big time home run threats to rebuild an anemic offense. They will go get their OT and defensive players in the later rounds.
Buffalo is in no man's land and will have to decide if they want to finally draft a real offensive tackle or grab a NT in Dan Williams that is solid but won't win them one extra game this year. Count on Chan Gailey pushing to build his offense and he needs a tackle badly.
Jacksonville will give Philly the chance to come up and get the impact safety they desperately need in Thomas and allow Jacksonville to move down the board and set up the Tim Tebow pick. He's not the best pick for anyone at that point, but he literally could be the reason football is saved in Jacksonville and the team isn't moved. It's a no brainer at that point in the big picture, much the way giving Jake Plummer a huge contract in Arizona was key in winning the stadium tax vote that finally built the Cardinals new stadium. Economic reality often over rides football decisions and he could turn out to be a good pro quarterback.
Baltimore is slotted in every other mock draft as taking another receiver, which makes little sense given the off season trades. However, there will be talent there for the Ravens but I see them going defensive line or corner here with Jared Odrick looking like a Raven to me.
The Cardinals will have a choice between Sergio Kindle and Nick Weatherspoon, but I think they are happy with their picks last year, Cody Brown and Will Davis and that they know they have a huge hole at inside linebacker. Weatherspoon could start right away and dramatically upgrade the position by being a three down linebacker that fills the Dansby hole right out of the box with even more upside then Dansby had.
Anyway you look at it, the end of the round is a crap shoot, but I like my chances over McShay and Kiper, the one that will be tough to beat is Eli.